Scientists predict future ketchup shortage as climate change damages crops

HURON, Calif. (KMPH) — Scientists have a new concern about climate change — running out of ketchup.

Despite the prediction, one grower in California is confident there will be tomato crops for generations to come.

A huge field of green tomatoes in Fresno County has been growing for two months. In July, they'll be changing color and ready to be harvested.

Then it's off to the processor to become tomato paste, sauce or ketchup.

Daniel Hartwig is the resource manager at Woolf Farms which grows 3,000 acres of processed tomatoes.

"California is a great place to grow tomatoes," Hartwig told KMPH. "We've got the soil and it's the right climate to do everything that we need. We just need water and without water, it just doesn't work."

California growers are always concerned about the availability of water, especially in the third year of a statewide drought. But researchers from Denmark, the U.S. and Italy are worried about climate change on the tomato crop. They believe it will severely influence the yield, production and water demand of processing tomatoes.

"I think scientists are smart people but I think farmers are really ingenuitive. I think farmers always find a way to get the job done," Hartwig said.

California accounts for roughly 95% of the nation's processing tomatoes and about half the world's supply. China and Italy make up the rest.

Researchers believe warmer temperatures will speed up the plant's growth cycle, resulting in a shorter time for the crop to develop. They predict a 6% decline in tomato production by 2050; but between 2050 and 2100 the global tomato harvest could be cut in half.

"Will we be growing in the exact same time frames? Maybe, maybe not. It might be a different thing that we're doing but the thing that has me most concerned is just making sure we have enough water."

With the price of water currently at $2200 an acre-foot, growers are more concerned about their bottom line than a climate change prediction less than three decades away.