Newest model projects more than 200,000 COVID-19 deaths in United States by Nov. 1

The coronavirus could hit states especially hard in the fall, as cases and deaths are projected to surge.

The latest numbers from UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation show significant COVID-19 deaths in the Fall.

IHME researchers project 208,255 deaths in the country by Nov. 1. The last IHME projection showed more than 175,000 Americans will die of coronavirus by Oct. 1.

Researchers said those numbers drop to 162,808 if at least 95 percent of people wear masks in public. That’s 45,000 fewer deaths, just by wearing a mask.

In Washington State, deaths are projected to reach 2,510. In Oregon, deaths are projected to reach 471. In California, deaths are projected to reach 16,827.

The new projections factor states re-imposing strong social distancing mandates when deaths per day reach a level of eight per one million people.

The death projections get higher if no state action is taken and no masks are worn.

Officials said many states are expected to see cases and deaths jump significantly in September and October—especially as the flu season hits.

“The US didn’t experience a true end to the first wave of the pandemic,” said Dr. Christopher Murray with the IHME. “This will not spare us from a second surge in the fall, which will hit particularly hard in states currently seeing high levels of infections.”

Health experts underscored the importance of mask mandates and social distancing as the pandemic progresses.

“Mask use is an important and effective strategy for reducing transmission,” said Murray. “Everyone, including people in leadership roles are at risk when they are coming into contact with people and not avoiding contact and not wearing a mask.”

To read more about the projections by state CLICK HERE.