Updated Friday 4:00 p.m.
Just some scattered showers this evening as the weather pattern reloads for another stormy few days around the Northwest.
Most of the showers this evening will be in the North Sound in the Convergence Zone -- some showers there could be a bit heavy with small hail. That will stretch into the Cascades as snow above 3,500-4,000 feet. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until midnight for 4-10" above 4,000 feet -- including Stevens Pass. Elsewhere a few scattered showers with lows in the mid 40s.
Lighter rain will develop Saturday morning, with rain increasing in intensity from the south as the day progresses as the potent warm front swings up from Oregon. Chalk up Saturday afternoon, evening and night as another drenching period.
This time around, it appears this version of our "atmospheric river" will focus its most intense rainfall in the Central and Southern Cascades, where forecast charts are indicating as much as 4-7 inches of rain. The Olympics and Cascades are expecting less at this point -- about 2-4 inches -- but rivers are still running high from the midweek storm and a small shift in where the front is aiming could bring heavier rains to the north.
Thus, a Flood Watch remains in effect for all rivers in Western Washington, with greatest risk along rivers south of Stevens Pass. Most rivers, if they flood, are expected to remain in the minor category but a few rivers could reach moderate flood stage, especially those in the southern and central Cascades.
One special note -- there is a special Flash Flood Watch for the burn areas of Eastern Pierce County for higher than normal runoff, excess debris, and debris flows will be possible in and immediately below the burn areas, especially near SR 410, the vicinity of Goat Creek, and the valley below Crystal Mountain.
In the lowlands, weekend rainfall totals are expected to reach 2-3 inches or more from about Olympia southward, with 1-2 inches likely in the Seattle area and points north. This again could lead to small stream flooding and localized urban flooding, especially near any clogged storm drains.
Wind will also be noticeable, with gusts to 30-45 mph, especially Saturday evening and night. One forecast model -- the Euro -- does paint some gusts up to 50 mph in the Central and South Sound late Saturday evening into early Saturday night, so that will bear watching.
Heavy rains will linger into early Sunday then begin to taper back to scattered showers as the winds ease down. Showers will then slowly decrease through the day, with most showers done by Sunday night -- essentially when the whistle blows and this stormy period is over.
Next week kicks off with sunshine, believe it or not, with sunny skies both Monday and Tuesday after some areas of morning fog burns off. Highs will eventually break into the low-mid 60s. There's a chance of some light rain again on Wednesday but followed up by another pleasant day on Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 50s.
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