Seattle warm stretch to last into September ... 2016?!?
It's the third Thursday of the month, or as Seattle meteorologists are starting to know it as: "The day the new long range maps come out and say the same thing as last month's did."
Yes, it's time for the update to the monthly 30- and 90-day seasonal outlooks, and yes, it's pretty much the same as June's. And May's. And April's. And... you get the picture. At least for the temperature part.
In the short term, there still remains very high confidence the Northwest will have a hot summer, and overall, there is a similarly high confidence we'll have a warm and dry winter.
It's a combination of the warm blob of temperatures in the North Pacific, now combining with a moderately strong El Nino that's already here and forecasters say has an 80 percent chance to last through the winter. (There are other signs that it could end up a rather strong El Nino as well, but it's difficult to predict intensity this far out.)
Here's the summer map:
Yes, Western Washington remains with the highest confidence in the lower 48 of having a hot summer.
In fact, the only real change this month for temperature outlook is now the long-range forecast models are painting Western Washington in the "likely to have warmer than normal conditions" all the way through *next* summer. (The maps only go out 14 months so we're spared having the maps try and wipe out the winter of 2016-17 too.)
For proof, here are nearly 800 pixels of scrolling down that show Mother Nature will be warming the grounds, but not the hearts of Seattleites who prefer cooler weather. Yes that last map is for July-September 2016 and... still brown (as in, warm) over the Northwest:
There is a minor change in the rainfall forecast - at least in the short term. For some reason, the maps have backed off the drier than normal signal for the Pacific Northwest -- just for July though. It picks back up in August again and stays with us into the winter.
And for proof, I'll only give you 600 pixels of rain forecast maps:
So yes, June is well on its way to being the 16th month in a row with above normal temperatures in Seattle, a streak that doesn't appear to be stopping any time soon.