Yet another chilly spring on tap for the Northwest?
It seems like a broken record:
Did you hear? It was a chilly spring in 2008.(Coldest start to June on record)
Did you hear? It was a chilly spring in 2010. (2nd-longest wait for first 75 degree day of year)
Did you hear? It was a chilly spring in 2011. (Coldest April on record, 2nd wettest March-April)
Did you hear? It was a chilly spring in 2012. (3rd wettest March on record)
If long range forecasts are to be believed, tune in next year when I add a line for 2013.
While winter hasn't really lived up to its name -- especially in the "you call 0.6 inches of snow a winter?" department -- the season once again seems like it won't be able to keep its grubby paws off its successor.
The 30-day forecast issued for March by NOAA's Center for Environment Prediction paints a very blue picture for the Pacific Northwest -- literally for the forecast maps; figuratively for sun and warm weather fans:
And its 90 day forecast that covers March through May isn't much warmer, although later maps seem to indicate the cooler period is likely to occur in the March-April time frame than May. (See? Silver lining -- Memorial Day will be great!*)
(*- Not an actual forecast)
Now for some other silver linings for the sun fans: The forecast had been for a cooler February too and so far, it's trending just a bit warmer than average -- although the cool forecast is more adamant for March/April than it was for Feb. Also, the forecasts for rain are equal chances -- as in there is no signal in the climate models one way or the other. Many times when you get the "cool" forecast moniker it comes with a "wetter than average" one too, but this time, no.
As to why (or in sun fan cases: "Why?...Why?....WHY??!?!") we've been on this streak of missing springs -- this blog I wrote last spring as we pondered how we could possibly be having the fourth chilly spring of the last five has one answer.
The abridged version for those who don't want to click on the link: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation remains in a cool phase and that could keep the Northwest a little cooler than normal for a while -- it's been an effective shield so far against the much warmer than normal temperatures the rest of the nation has experienced the past couple of years.
But someday we'll shift back to a warmer phase, and perhaps then the broken record will stop. We'll see if anyone remembers what records were by then...
Northwest Weather Workshop this weekend!
The Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop, the annual gathering for those interested in Northwest weather and climate. will be held this Friday and Saturday at the NOAA Sand Point facility in Seattle. For more information, check out http://www.atmos.washington.edu/pnww/