Latest forecasts reaffirm warmer than normal summer for Northwest
SEATTLE -- Evidence is growing that after a very soggy February and March, that we're going to dry things up for a while around here.
Latest 30- and 90-day forecasts from the NOAA's National Center for Environment Prediction continue to forecast a long period of warmer-than-normal temperatures through spring and the summer across the West, and are now starting to forecast slightly higher odds of a drier than normal spring as well in the Northwest.
The warmer than normal forecast begins with the April-May-June 90 day forecast and continues now through its August-September-October-November, with a significant signal still coming in for the July-August-September period being warmer than normal.
Much like the last month forecasts, odds are trending for about a 45-52 percent chance of warmer than normal temperatures this summer, as opposed to a 33 percent chance of normal temperatures and a roughly 15-23 percent chance of a cooler than normal summer.
For precipitation, there is still a weak drier-than-normal signal for the April-May-June and May-June-July periods.
As for next fall and winter, it's too far out right now to pick up any significant signals, but if initial signs pointing to a moderate to strong El Nino winter come to fruition, we can likely expect the warm and dry trend to continue through the fall and winter.
Remember: This is giving a weighted die forecast -- Akin to if you had a 10-sided die, warm would be painted on 5 sides, neutral on 3, and cooler on maybe 2 sides. This is also for overall average spread out over the 90 days and doesn't mean we can't have an occasional cold stretch in embedded in there. But overall, I'd say my Seattle summer-tracking Twitter page @Summerminutes will be busier than it has been in past years.
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