Is Seattle's 18-month heat streak in jeopardy?
The last time Seattle had a month that was considered cooler than normal by average temperature, we were all dancing in the streets (but only during the "walk" sign) celebrating the Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII victory.
A lot has happened since Feburary 2014, but one thing that has remained the same month after month since then: A plus sign next to Seattle's average overall temperature in regard to departure from normal. That's 18 months in a row, if you haven't been keeping track.
But is this September the one to finally break the streak? It's looking likely...
With half the month in the books, Seattle stands at an average overall temperature of 61.9 degrees -- which is 1.2 degrees below normal as of our average Sept. 15 temperature.
But unlike every other month that has started cooler than normal (which haven't been too many), there doesn't appear to be a mega-high-pressure-heat-ridge in the offing ready to spike the numbers for the second half of the month. In fact, of the next two weeks, only two-to-three days look to seriously threaten 70 degrees.
But rather than be patient and wait the month out, I went ahead and used the current 15-day projections (because they're never, ever wrong) to see where it looks like the month will end up. The next 7 days I used our forecast and then went to Weather Channel for their 8-15 day forecast (because it doesn't say they'll all be hotter than 85 degrees.)
The overall projection for average temperature this month: 60.4 degrees. Average overall temperature for all of September in Seattle: 61.3 degrees.
THE STREAK IS IN JEOPARDY!
In fact, we have a buffer of 49 total degrees to play with over the next 15 days to still not hit the mark -- in other words, even if each of the 15 days from here to the end of the month averaged 3 degrees warmer than projected, we'd still be officially cooler than normal. I like those odds.
It'll also the be the first time in forever (sorry parents of "Frozen"-fan kids to get that song stuck in your head) that the 30- and 90-day forecasts have erred. Forecasts had well over a 60 percent chance this month would end up warmer than normal, ceding to "The Blob".
The new forecasts for October come out Thursday. I'd still be betting besides the cool September, we'll pick up where we left off in October.
Monthly Stats Since Feb. 2014 (Sea-Tac Airport)